Estimated read time: 6 min
Augusta week is here, and if you run a golf pool, you already know the first problem: everyone wants Scottie Scheffler.
He is the world number one. He has won this event before. He is the obvious pick. And in pools across the country, he will be on over half of all rosters before Thursday's opening tee shot.
That is exactly the problem.
Golf pools are not just about picking the best player. They are about picking the players nobody else picked — and being right. If Scheffler wins and he is on 61% of your pool's teams, the person who beats you probably had him too. You need value somewhere, and that means thinking carefully about how you fill out your roster across the tiers.
Here is how to think about tier strategy for Augusta week.
Most golf pools divide the field into tiers based on odds or world ranking. The idea is simple: the best players go in Tier 1, the next group in Tier 2, and so on down to Tier 6. Each team must pick players from a spread of tiers — you cannot just stack your roster with the five favorites and call it a day.
This constraint is the whole game. The question is not who the best player in the field is. The question is: which player in each tier gives you the most upside relative to how many other teams in your pool have picked them?
In any given major, one or two Tier 1 players dominate the pick percentage. This year, Scheffler is on more than 60% of rosters in active Beat The Cut pools heading into Thursday. Rory McIlroy is on about 20%.
Here is the math that matters: if Scheffler wins and he is on 60% of your pool, you likely finish in the middle of the pack. The teams that beat you had him and got lucky somewhere else. The teams that beat you without him had a huge edge the moment he struggled.
Augusta specifically rewards this kind of contrarian thinking. The course punishes aggressive play, weather windows can blow up a leaderboard in an afternoon, and there is a reason this event has produced first-time major winners and shock finishes for decades running.
The Tier 1 pick is still important — you want someone who can contend. But if you can stomach the variance, a player like Tommy Fleetwood (on just 14% of rosters) or Xander Schauffele (11%) gives you differentiation that matters when the leaderboard gets tight on Sunday.
This is the real edge in most pick'em formats. The top tier players are predictable. The bottom tiers are mostly dart throws. But Tier 2 and Tier 3 are where informed picks separate the winners from the field.
Look at the pick distribution in active pools right now: Ludvig Aberg is on 36% of Tier 2 rosters. He is the obvious choice — strong ball-striker, proven major contender. Chris Gotterup at 25% is the next most popular, coming off strong form.
In Tier 3, Bryson DeChambeau is on over half of all rosters. He hits it far, he is exciting, and Augusta rewards length. But if DeChambeau has a bad week — which happens — every team with him takes the same hit.
Jon Rahm at 18% and Akshay Bhatia at 14% are interesting here. Both have the game for Augusta. Neither is the consensus pick. In a pool where the Tier 3 slot often determines the winner, having a player nobody else has when he catches fire on the back nine Sunday is the exact scenario that wins your group.
These are the tiers where you either lose ground or quietly build it. Everyone in your pool is guessing here — the difference is whether your guess is informed or random.
Tyrrell Hatton leads Tier 4 at 29% pick rate. He has the temperament for Augusta and plays the big moments well. Shane Lowry at 14% has the ball-striking to compete here but is undervalued relative to his track record in majors.
In Tier 5, Jason Day has clearly captured the imagination of pool managers at 39%. He is a former major winner and has shown signs of a return to form. But Corey Conners at 25% is one of the best ball-strikers in the game at a course that rewards exactly that. If you are looking for a Tier 5 sleeper with genuine contention upside, Conners is the name to know.
The temptation with Tier 6 is to throw a dart and move on. Most players here have long odds for a reason. But Augusta has a history of rewarding certain player profiles: experienced major winners who know the course, and mid-range ball-strikers who avoid big mistakes.
Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka, both at 21% pick rate, bring major pedigree. Both have won at Augusta or performed well there. If one of them clicks this week, you will have an edge over the third of your pool that grabbed a random Tier 6 name.
Before you finalise your picks, check what your pool members are picking. If you find yourself with the same roster as three other teams, you are essentially tying with them for position regardless of how the tournament plays out.
The goal is a roster that gives you sole ownership of a few meaningful players. One contrarian Tier 1 pick. A Tier 3 player with real contention upside that nobody else has. A Tier 5 sleeper.
You will not win your pool every week with this approach. But you will win it more often than the person who just picks the top pick percentage player at every tier.
Beat The Cut gives you live scoring updates automatically throughout the week, and your leaderboard tracks every team's position in real time.
If you have not set up your pool yet, you still have time before Thursday's first tee.
Start your pool at beatthecut.com/pools/new